Published October 2, 2026 in Market Update

See how higher mortgage rates are splitting this market

By Andrew Skirde

Real estate, Primary market

Look at your ZIP code before you set a number. Freddie Mac reported the 30-year fixed rate averaged 7.28% as of October 1, 2026. That is the same rate for every buyer in this market. But the Real Estate Data Aggregator counted very different results across the three months ending July 31, 2026. Some ZIP codes gained 12% or more in price. Others fell as much as 10%. One rate, many stories.

Realtor.com noted that mortgage rates crossed 7% in late September for the first time since January 2025. That matters because buyers feel every tenth of a point. Where supply is tight, they still compete. Where supply is loose, they wait.

Where prices climbed

The Real Estate Data Aggregator counted three ZIP codes with double-digit price gains in the three months ending July 31, 2026. ZIP 92102 led with a median sale price of $959,500, up 32.8% from the same months of 2025. ZIP 92118 posted $3,010,000, up 32.3%. ZIP 92113 reached $770,000, up 14.1%. ZIP 92117 hit $1,150,000, up 11.1%. ZIP 92107 came in at $1,400,000, up 12%. ZIP 92105 reached $740,000, up 10.9%.

Where prices dipped

Not every ZIP code held its ground. The Real Estate Data Aggregator showed ZIP 92037 dropped 10% to a median of $2,245,000. ZIP 92110 fell 9% to $753,000. ZIP 92104 slid 6.8% to $851,000. ZIP 92108 dipped 5.3% to $585,750. These are real moves, not small rounding errors. The Federal Housing Finance Agency reported U.S. house prices rose just 2.1% year over year between the second quarters of 2025 and 2026. Several ZIP codes here lost more than that in a single quarter.

Speed tells a different story too

Prices are one signal. Speed is another. The Real Estate Data Aggregator counted ZIP 92117 at a median of 15 days on market, 8 days shorter than a year before. ZIP 92116 also came in at 15 days, 13 days shorter. ZIP 92111 hit 17 days, 4 days shorter. Those ZIP codes are moving fast, even with rates at 7.28%.

On the other end, ZIP 92101 sat at 58 days. ZIP 92102 stretched to 37 days, 19 days longer than a year ago. ZIP 92113 ran 36 days. Buyers in those areas are taking their time, and sellers are feeling it.

Who is still competing above list price

Even at 7.28%, buyers in several ZIP codes are pushing past list price. The Real Estate Data Aggregator found that in ZIP 92105, 51.6% of homes sold above list. ZIP 92117 came in at 41.7% above list. ZIP 92111 hit 45.1%. ZIP 92116 reached 39.7%. Those are not small pockets of competition. They are majority-above-list markets.

Compare that with ZIP 92101, where only 8% of homes sold above list. ZIP 92037 came in at 15.3%, down 8.5 points from a year before. ZIP 92106 sat at 18%. The same rate, very different buyer behavior.

Supply: where buyers have choices and where they do not

The National Association of Realtors reported the national months supply of homes reached 4.9 months, the highest level in over ten years. This market does not read that way everywhere. The Real Estate Data Aggregator counted ZIP 92117 at just 1.9 months of supply. ZIP 92111 sat at 2.3 months. ZIP 92116 came in at 2.8 months. Buyers there have very little to choose from.

ZIP 92101 ran 7.3 months of supply, up 1.2 months from a year ago. ZIP 92118 came in at 5.1 months. Those ZIP codes give buyers more room to pause, compare, and push back on price. Realtor.com reported active listings nationally are up 6.3% from a year ago. That national trend is showing up here, but only in some ZIP codes.

How quickly homes go under contract

The Real Estate Data Aggregator tracked how many homes went under contract within two weeks of listing. In ZIP 92117, 50.4% did, up 18.8 points from a year before. ZIP 92116 came in at 47.2%, up 20.9 points. ZIP 92111 hit 50%, up 12.3 points. ZIP 92113 reached 45.5%, up 18.8 points. Buyers in those areas are deciding fast.

ZIP 92101 sat at just 13.6%, down 6 points from a year ago. ZIP 92108 came in at 22.7%, down 1.6 points. Homes there are sitting longer before a buyer commits.

The rate backdrop for all of this

Freddie Mac reported the 15-year fixed rate averaged 6.60% as of October 1, 2026. That is the option some buyers use to lower their monthly cost. The National Association of Realtors reported existing-home sales decreased 2.0% in August 2026. Year-to-date through the first eight months of 2026, they were still up 1.6%. Buyers have not stopped. They have slowed and sorted.

A Redfin senior economist noted that mortgage rates were sitting above 7%. The Federal Housing Finance Agency reported U.S. house prices rose 0.3% quarter over quarter from the first quarter to the second quarter of 2026. Nationally, the market is inching forward. Here, it is sprinting in some ZIP codes and stalling in others.

What this split means for your plan

If you are setting a list price, the ZIP code is the starting point, not the whole picture. ZIP 92102 posted a 32.8% price gain and a 37-day median. ZIP 92118 posted a 32.3% gain and a 35-day median. Strong price gains do not always mean fast sales. You have to read both signals together.

If you are building a budget, know which ZIP code you are targeting. A 1.9-month supply in 92117 means you may compete. A 7.3-month supply in 92101 means you may have room to negotiate. The rate is the same for everyone. The market is not.

One street can read very differently from the whole ZIP code. The numbers above cover entire ZIP codes. Your block, your floor plan, your condition all shift the picture. That is where a closer look pays off.